生猪养殖产业变化的用地影响及其政策供给分析

Impact of Pig Farming on Land Use and Its Policy Provision

为分析生猪养殖产业变化的用地影响,本文采用结构分解的思路,对2002—2010年生猪养殖产业变化的用地影响进行分析,主要估算了其对耕地需求的结构效应、技术效应和规模效应,以及对设施农用地需求的结构效应和规模效应。结果表明:(1)2002—2010年,我国的生猪养殖业正在经历较为明显的产业转型——散养明显减少、规模养殖明显增加。(2)就耕地需求的影响而言,结构效应为26.19万公顷、技术效应为223.09万公顷、规模效应为819.45万公顷,前述三者之和为1068.73万公顷,分别相当于2010年耕地面积的0.19%、1.65%、6.06%和7.90%。(3)对于设施农用地需求的影响而言,规模养殖饲养生猪数量增加,使得生猪养殖用地增加了174 609.0公顷(规模效应),相当于2014年批准建设用地的43.24%,相当于近5年(2009—2013年)年均耕地减少面积的47.85%;同样的,不同养殖规模比重的变动,使得生猪养殖用地增加了24 760.50公顷(结构效应),相当于2014年批准建设用地的6.13%,相当于近5年(2009—2013年)年均耕地减少面积的6.79%。此外,还分析了与之相关的用地政策供给,相关的政策供应顺应了包括生猪养殖产业在内的农业产业转型发展的需要,但在与之相关的土地利用变化监测方面可能依然是个具有挑战的问题。

To investigate the impact on the changes in land use of pig farming industry,this study used the incomplete decomposition approach to analyze the scale,structure and technical effect on land use from 2002to 2010.The results indicate that:(1)the pig farming industry experienced notable industrial transformations with remarkable decrease in the share of small-scale pig farming.(2)Those changes in pig production increased the demand for farmland,and its scale,structure,technical effect and their sum were 8 194.5,261.9,2 230.9and 10 687.3thousand ha,whose ratio to the area of farmland in 2010were 6.06%,0.19%,1.65%and 7.90%,respectively.(3)Those changes in pig production increased the demand for non-farm land,with 174.6 thousand ha of scale-effect and 24.8thousand ha of structure effect,whose ratios of 5-year average farmland loss were 47.9%and 6.8%,respectively.Moreover,the analysis on the land use policies relevant to pig farming industry shows that those policies has improved the growth of pig farming industry,while the monitoring of land use change would be a challenge for China’s land administration department.