基于逻辑斯蒂模型的中欧班列开行数量预测探讨

A Discussion on the Forecast of the Number of China Railway Express based on Logistic Model

中欧班列是推进国家"一带一路"倡议实施的重要内容,同时也是促进中欧班列沿线国家贸易发展的重要着力点,研究中欧班列发展趋势能够为中欧班列在运营管理及运输组织等方面提供发展思路,明确发展目标,具有十分重要的意义。阐述中欧班列开行的影响因素,得出影响中欧班列开行的主要影响因素有政策条件、综合运输费用及全程送达时间3项,在此基础上,构建逻辑斯蒂模型,预测中欧班列的开行数量,并结合中欧班列开行影响因素估算分析中欧班列未来的开行趋势,给出在不同影响因素下中欧班列开行数量的趋势范围带,得出中欧班列近几年将会继续保持稳步快速发展的结论。

China Railway Express is an important part of promoting the implementation of'the Belt and Road Initiative'.It is also an important point to promote the development of trade between China and Europe.It is of great significance to study the development trend of China Railway Express to provide development ideas of operations management and transportation organizations,and clarify development goals.This paper analyzes the influencing factors of the opening of China Railway Express.It concludes that the main influencing factors are the policy conditions,comprehensive transportation costs and the total delivery time.And constructing a logistic model to predict the number of the trains in the future,in order to show the trend range of the number of trains under different influencing factors.Then it concludes that China Railway Express will maintain steady and rapid development in recent years.