土耳其外交政策中的两个结构性问题:库尔德问题和亲西方外交

Two Structural Problems of Turkey’s Foreign Policy:Kurdish Issue and Westernization of FP

土耳其共和国建立以来,外交政策一直受作用于两个结构性动力:库尔德问题和亲西方外交。理论上讲,土耳其可以通过在国内和区域层次上有效地管制库尔德问题和强化与西方的联系,从而增加自己的软权力。但事实上,土耳其已经为这两个问题之网形成的'囚笼'所困,在可预见的未来难有新的突破,从而延滞了其实现区域领袖抱负的时间,也阻碍了它在区域和国际层面上发挥重要影响的追求。土耳其可以通过增强自身实力和灵活的外交为笼子扩容,寻求与自己实力相称的地位,与此同时坐等区域和国际层面上地缘政治的大转变。中东局势的动荡则导致土耳其外交活动的空间趋窄而非相反,可能引发与相关国家/行为体关系的波折。西方最终还是要接受土耳其奉行独立的外交政策。

Turkey’s foreign policy has had two significant structural dynamics since the foundation of Republic:one is the Kurdish issue and the other is the relationship with the West.Theoretically,Turkey can build its soft power through effectively management of the Kurdish issue domestically and regionally,and through building on its strong links with the West.But practically,there are more and more interest conflicts between Turkey and the West,and it has also proved complicated for Turkey to manage the Kurdish issue successfully.It is unrealistic for Turkey to break away from the cage,but it can enlarge the cage through building its power and smart foreign policy to find a place fit well with its strength,while waiting for the great transformation on the regional and international scales.If Turkey wants to break the cage violently,it is easily to cause some conflicts with neighbor countries or cause conflict with big powers.But at last,the West need to accept Turkey who pursues an independent foreign policy.