产品生命周期定性模拟原型系统的研究

Qualitative simulation prototype for product life circle

应用模糊数学的理论和方法 ,选取产品销售量、销售利润率和市场占有率 3个指标 ,同时以企业决策年度为时间变量 ,根据QSIM定性推理状态转换表 ,判断相邻时间间隔的产品生命周期变化趋势 ,建立了产品生命周期的模糊识别模型 ,并采用VC ++实现了产品生命周期模糊识别定性模拟原型系统 .该原型系统根据以往年度的产品基础数据 。

According to the universal development law of the product life circle, quantitative forecast was combined with qualitative forecast to build a fuzzy distinguishing PLC model. System variables in this model were described on the basis of fuzzy theory. Based on qualitative simulation state conversion table of QSIM, an enterprise′s statistical year was taken as time variable, so that it was possible for the prototype to judge the developing direction of each product in the next period. On the basis of the model, the Qualitative Simulation Prototype for Product Life Circle was built with VC++. According to the annual data from the enterprise′s database, the prototype can give a qualitative judgment of numerical state and development trend for product lines and product breeds in each line.