摘要
基于暴雨内涝天气对公交线路运行影响强弱的三种情形,通过实际调查(RP)和意向调查(SP)的调查结果进行效用模型估计和决策变量的敏感性分析,解析暴雨内涝下公交乘客的出行选择行为机理,得到公交乘客出行选择行为的影响因素(由强至弱)是步行时间、票价、车内时间和车内拥挤程度,以及所选出行方式的主要特点(由强至弱)是零换乘、低票价、中途易更改出行意愿和运行稳定.最后根据上述结果,从调度指挥、对信息服务、交管保障三个方面进行了暴雨内涝天气下公交应急预案的探讨.
Derived from revealed preference(RP)and stated preference(SP)survey results for the transit passengers,this paper developed the travel choice behavior model considering the effects on bus route operation under three types of storm waterlogging scenarios.Sensitivity analysis was also performed to evaluate the critical factors for transit passengers in choosing their travel modes,which include walk time,transit fare,in-bus congestion degree,and in-bus travel time(from high to low).And,the main features of the selected travel modes are zero transfer,low fare,easy to change traveling intention and stable operation(from high to low).These finding could have implications for developing bus emergency management plan and serve as references for public transit agency regarding bus dispatching,information announcement and traffic safeguard.
作者
薄坤
滕靖
俞洁
韩大海
BO Kun;TENG Jing;YU Jie;HAN Daha(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the State Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;College of Higher Technical,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee,Milwaukee 53211,USA)
出处
《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期795-801,共7页
Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science
基金
上海市科学技术委员会“科技创新行动计划”社会发展领域重点项目(17DZ1204409)
关键词
出行选择行为
公交乘客
多项Logit模型
敏感性分析
暴雨内涝天气
travel choice behavior
transit passenger
multinomial model
sensitivity analysis
the storm weather with waterlogging
