京津冀人口老龄化对区域经济增长的影响

Impact of population aging in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei on regional economic growth

人口老龄化对区域经济增长的影响是提升经济发展质量和规避经济风险的重要议题。研究立基京津冀样例,通过分析京津冀人口老龄化的实存状况并建立双面板变系数固定效应模型,与多维面板协整检验后发现:当前京津冀地区老年人口比重及地区差异较大,人口老龄化与区域经济增长存在长期稳定的均衡关系,无论是否存在时间效应,人口老龄化均对北京、天津经济增长存在正效应,对河北省经济增长有负面影响。

The impact of population aging on regional economic growth is an important issue,which sheds some light on improving the quality of economic development and avoiding economic risks.Through the analysis of the existing situation of population aging in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and the establishment of a fixed effect model with double panel variable coefficients and multi-dimensional panel co-integration test,it is found that the proportion of the elderly population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is large and regional differences are obvious.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between population aging and regional economic growth.The factor of time-effect has no impact.Aging has a positive effect on the economic growth of Beijing and Tianjin,and a negative impact on the economic growth of Hebei Province.