宝坻区气温特殊性分析及最高、最低气温预报方法研究

Analysis of the Particularity of Air Temperature in Baodi District and Study of Max. and Min. Air Temperature Forecasting Methods

以宝坻区气象局观测站及区域自动站和周边区县站多年自动站逐日最高、最低气温为基础,研究其相关性,分析宝坻区最高、最低气温特性,并结合宝坻区气象局观测站5年内的逐日地面观测资料(天空状况、风),计算各气象要素对该区域气温变化的平均贡献值,并基于850,hpa 20时欧洲温度预报、欧洲细网格2,m气温预报、WRF气温预报等常用的预报资料,分析其相关性,综合探讨了宝坻区最高、最低气温预报方法。

The correlations between daily maximum and minimum temperatures of the observation station of Baodi District,regional automatic stations and surrounding county stations were studied to analyze local features of the maximum and minimum temperature. Combined with the Baodi station's daily ground observation data(sky and wind)in the past five years,average contribution values of various meteorological elements to local temperature changes were calculated. In addition,based on common forecasting data used by 850 hpa 20:00 temperature prediction of Europe,European fine mesh 2 meters temperature forecast and WRF temperature forecast,the relevance was analyzed and local maximum and minimum temperature forecast methods were discussed.