异质条件下专业机构与公众通胀预期的传导机制研究

Research on Transmission Mechanism of Inflation Expectation between Professional Institution and the Public under the Condition of Heterogeneity

根据适应性学习理论,建立专业机构通胀预期向公众传导的通胀预期异质模型,并将其引入到混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,利用状态空间模型估计出公众通胀预期及混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线。研究结果表明:中国公众和专业机构通胀预期存在显著的异质性,公众通胀预期具有适应性学习和滞后性特点;中国通货膨胀的形成同时具有前瞻性和后顾性特点。管理通胀预期不仅需要政府对一些宏观经济变量的调控,还需要政府加强信息披露制度,强化公众与央行、专业预测机构之间的信息沟通渠道等措施。

According to the adaptive learning theory,this paper established a heterogeneous inflation expectation conduction model from professional institutions to the public,and mixed it into to the new Keynesian Phillips curve to estimate the public inflation expectations and hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve through state space model.The empirical results showed that:inflation expectation presented significant heterogeneity between the public and professional organizations,and public inflation expectations were provided with adaptive learning and hysteresis.The formation of inflation in our country had the dynamic properties of the forward-looking as well as looking back.Management of inflation expectations required not only government regulation of some macroeconomic variables,but also demanded the government to strengthen the information disclosure system,strengthen microcosmic measures such as information communication channels among the public,the central bank and professional forecasters.