地方政府性债务规模动态调整机制研究——基于县域面板数据的实证分析

The Dynamic Adjustment of the Scale of Local Government Debt:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of County Level

利用1997-2010年云南省126个县(市、区)的相关数据,基于非线性动态模型,通过将债务最优规模水平和调整速度内生化,实证考察了中国县域层面地方政府性债务规模的调整机制。研究结果显示:(1)地方政府性债务存在最优规模水平,最优规模值为0.43,但目前在整体上表现为负债不足,尚有一定举债空间;(2)调整速度的平均值为0.207,远小于1,表明债务规模的调整优化面临较高的成本,呈现出渐进而缓慢的部分调整过程;(3)最优规模水平和调整速度均存在着显著的时间和地区特征差异,不同地区要根据其自身特征来优化调整债务规模,以实现债务净正效应的最大化。

This paper investigates the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the scale of local government debt with a nonlinear dynamic model covering 126 counties of Yunnan Province over 1997 to 2010by making the optimal level and adjustment speed of debt scale endogenous.The results show that:(1)the optimal level of debt scale exists,the value is 0.43,but the actual scale is insufficient on the whole;(2)the average speed of adjustment is 0.207 and is far less than 1,this indicates the adjustment is costly and the adjustment process is gradual and slow;(3)the optimal scale and adjustment speed both have significant differences in year and region.In order to maximize the net positive effect of debt,different regions should optimize the debt scale according to their own characteristics.