省域内农村居民消费潜能模型构建与实证研究

Model Building and Empirical Test of Potential Consumption of Provincial Rural Residents

消费潜能是潜在消费需要与实际支付能力的统一。因城乡消费存在联动机制,且有农民工消费作为弥合城乡消费差异的实现载体,所以将城镇消费现实视为农村消费的一个合理边界,测算农村消费潜能就具有理论科学性及实践可行性。基于绝对收入理论,构建可变参数状态空间模型,测算1989—2020年陕西省农村消费潜能,得出以下结论:农村已沉淀消费潜能释放空间非正;未来消费潜能释放方向单一;消费潜能的增长优先于挖掘。并据此提出政策建议。

The potential consumption should be the unification of potential consumer demand and the actual capability to pay .Because of the linkage of urban‐rural consumption ,and the migrant workers as a bridge to narrow dow n the urban‐rural consumption difference ,the urban consumption can be a reasonable boundary of rural consumption ,and then measuring the rural potential consumption should be scientific in theories and feasible in practices .The article ,based on absolute income hypothesis ,builds a variable parameter state space model about urban consumption , to calculate the rural potential consumption from 1989 to 2020 in Shaanxi province . It concludes that the potential consumption settled has no release space ,and the future consumption has single release direction .So the growth of rural potential consumption takes priority over its tapping .It puts forward policy recommendations to improve rural residents'capability to pay .