临界最小努力模型及其扩展在中国的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Minimal Effort at Turning Point Model and its Expansion

最初的临界最小努力模型描述了在一定的转折点将农业剩余人口转化为非农业人口所应付出的最小努力程度 ,对年度努力状况未加细致分析。为此 ,我们对原模型进行了修正和扩展得到计算年度努力程度的修正模型和扩展模型。我们利用原模型和修正模型及扩展模型对中国就业非农化年度努力状况进行实证研究发现 ,利用原模型计算出的结果与实际情况存在较大出入 ,而利用修正模型和扩展模型得到的结果与实际拟合较好 ,扩展模型尤为恰当。我们还将扩展模型用于研究第三产业化的努力程度 ,我们发现 ,在现有发展水平下中国的第三产业化实际上已经很充分。

The initial minimal effort at turning point model describes the minimal effort on transferring agricultural surplus labor into non-agricultural labor, but did not involve in annual effort. We revised and expanded the initial model, and the new ones include annual efforts. Comparing initial model with revised model and expanded model, we found that the results based on initial model are quite different from the actual conditions, while the results based on revised model and expanded model fit the actual conditions well, especially for the expanded model. Furthermore, using the expanded model to research the effort of tertiary industrialization, we found that the tertiary industrialization is fully developed already in China. =