三峡库区泥石流活动及发展趋势的分析

Debris Flow Activities and Development Tendency in Areas around Three-Gorge Reservoir

三峡库区泥石流活动比较活跃。具有泥石流特征的沟谷约309条,其中254条集中分布在奉节以东的三峡峡谷区河段内。分析三峡库区泥石流活动在蓄水前、后的气象、地质、人文环境变化特征及库岸再造过程与泥石流活动消、长关系,通过泥石流发生判别模式的检算,在7个方面对蓄水后泥石流的发展趋势进行评估,提出了6点结论和一点建议。

Debris flows are active in the ThreeGorge Reservoir area. There are about 309 valleys that are frequently haunted by debris flows. 254 of these valleys are concentrated in the section of the reservoir area east of Fengjie. The paper analyzes the change of the climate, geological and human environment of the debris flows which occur before and after the reservoir stores water, the relationship between the reservoir bank change and the different level of the debris flows. Through the calculation of the debris flow occurrence mode, the debris flow development after the water storage is assessed in seven aspects. The paper ends with six points in the conclusion and one proposal.