当前中菲南海共同开发的制约瓶颈与应对思考

China-Philippines Joint Development in the South China Sea: Obstacles and Remedies

当前中菲推进南海共同开发磋商的势头良好,但仍存在五方面亟待解决的制约瓶颈。一是菲律宾对石油等能源资源做出的法律规定以及由此带来的所有权法律障碍。二是菲律宾国内对与中国在南海争议区开展"共同开发"存在政治分歧。中菲可先从联合勘探研究入手,推动菲律宾国内累积共同开发的政治共识。三是菲律宾南海共同开发政策连续性差。为了减少菲政府更换带来的政策变化冲击,中菲两国可设立(海上)共同开发事务代表来推进共同开发。四是菲律宾国内不少民众对中国的南海共同开发意图存有疑虑。中国可加大对菲民众的民生外交工作力度。五是美国会采取手段"介入"中菲南海共同开发磋商。针对美国"介入"因素,中菲可采取开放式共同开发思路。

China-Philippine Joint Development negotiation has kept a sound momentum,but at the same time there are also five obstacles which need to be overcome.The first obstacle is Philippine Law provisions known as the 60/40 rule and exclusive Philippine jurisdiction.The second obstacle is Philippine domestic political disputes on joint development in disputed maritime area.China and the Philippines can start from joint exploration research,which can help the Philippines to accumulate political consensus.The third obstacle is Philippine lower continuity of joint development policy in the South China Sea(SCS).To keep the continuity of joint development policy in the SCS,both China and the Philippines can respectively set up a High Commissioner for Maritime Joint Development.The fourth obstacle lies in Philippine suspicion of Chinese intention to promote joint development in the SCS.To cope with the situation,China can expand its public diplomacy among Philippine people to improve local people’s livelihood.The fifth obstacle comes from the U.S.The U.S.will not sit by and watch the success of China-Philippines joint development negotiation in the SCS;hence it will spare no effort to get itself involved in the issue.Confronted with the intervention of the U.S.,China can adopt an open-ended mind in joint development.