水文系统模型超前预报方法探讨

Hydrologic forecasting throngh system model

现行的洪水预报模型本身没有预见期,本文着重探讨系统模型的超前预报。结合渠江苟渡口、静边～罗渡溪河段的区间特征和资料建立多输入单输出系统模型,并利用自四归模型,对系统的响应函数的纵坐标进行变换,探求系统模型的超前预报方法。从应用结果看来,模型检验期的平均效率标准R^2高达98％,平均预报合格率约96％,模型的预报精度是高的。

The flood forecasting models currently available are not possessed of foreseeing period inthemselves. This paper especially puts stress on the exploration of the lead time forecasting for thesystematic model. In this paper,based on the characteristics and related hydrologic data of the inter-midiate area from the hydrometric stations, Goudukou and Jingbian to the hydrometric station, Lao-duxi on the Qujiang River, a systematic model with multiple input and single output is set up and thelead time for casting for the model is achieved by taking advantage of the auto--regression mathemat-ical model to transform the ordinates of response function of the system. The results in applicationshow that the accuracy of the proposed model is rather high with the average efficiency standard R^2 inverifying period being up to 98% and the average qualified rate of forecasting approximately 96%.