对外贸易下滑与中国产业空间格局演变——基于一般均衡模型的估计与模拟

Declining in Foreign Trade and Reshaping China's Industry Geography:Estimation and Stimulation Based on General Equilibrium Model

本文通过建立新经济地理学框架下的产业区位一般空间均衡模型,研究国际贸易环境恶化对我国国内产业空间格局的影响。我们利用实际数据估计出模型的关键参数,获得用于预测的模型,然后通过设置情景分析发现,出口比重下滑对于产业空间格局有着不可忽视的影响,并且这种影响具有一定产业差异性。一个产业出口环境的变化会在改变自身区位的同时改变与其联系紧密的上下游产业的空间分布。然而,改革开放以来形成的沿海一内地基本空间格局并不会因单纯出口下滑而发生根本的变化。

Based on the framework of New Economic Geography,this paper builds up a general spatial equilibrium model of industrial location,which aims to investigate the impact of worsen foreign trading environment on China's domestic spatial pattern of manufacturing industries.We estimate the key parameters by adopting regional and industry data to obtain a model which is used for prediction.We then,set some scenarios reflecting export dynamics to simulate evolution of industrial spatial pattern.The simulations indicate obvious impact of decline of export on spatial distribution of industries,but that influence is varying with respect to different industries.Moreover,decline of one industry's export not only influences the location of itself but also the location of forward or backward linked industries.However,the general spatial pattern will not be inversed only because of decline of export since reform and opening-up.