财政转移支付会产生“粘蝇纸效应”吗?——来自断点回归的新证据

Does Intergovernmental Transfer in China Have Flypaper Effect?——Quasi-experimental Evidence from China's Designation of National Poor Counties

本文利用1994年对国家级贫困县划分的自然实验,运用断点回归(regression discontinuity design)的方法,在考虑转移支付内生性问题的因果推论框架下,使用1999—2009年县级面板数据,对中国财政转移支付造成"粘蝇纸效应"的大小重新进行估计。实证研究的结果表明,财政转移支付确实能够产生"粘蝇纸效应"。对于本文的研究样本,一般性转移支付占GDP的比重每提高1%,财政支出占GDP的比重平均将提高1.5%;专项转移支付占GDP的比重每提高1%,财政支出占GDP的比重平均将提高3.0%。在转移支付总量不变的前提下,提高一般性转移支付比重、压缩专项转移支付比重不会造成地方政府规模膨胀。

Taking advantage of Chinese central government's designation of National Poor Counties,this paper tests intergovernmental transfers' flypaper effect through a regression discontinuity design.We find sizable flypaper effect in China within our sample:a 1-percent increase of general transfer leads to a 1.5-percent increase in county government's fiscal expenditure and the multiplier for earmarked transfer is 3.0.Policy conclusion can be drawn that raising the ratio of general transfers will not expand county government's expenditures,ceteris paribus.