基本养老金财富对人力资本水平激励的“双重门槛效应”

The "Double Threshold Effect" of the Basic Pension Wealth on the Incentive of Human Capital

近年来,经济增长与养老保险制度模式改革巳成为社会各界关注的两大热点话题。养老保险制度模式改革能否促进经济增长?本文首先采用2002—2012年的宏观省际面板数据,证实了养老金财富存在着对人力资本水平提升的激励效应。接着,利用2005年的养老保险政策改革机会,我们发现,积累制的增强有利于这一激励效应的加强,同时,门槛模型的检验结果表明,这种激励在不同省份之间存在"双重门槛效应"。本文建议在利用人力资本激励效应的同时,应尽量消除不同省份间的门槛,促进入力资本水平的全面均衡提升,以达到经济增长的最终目的。

In recent years,the economic growth and pension insurance system reform have become the two hot topics drawing much attention from the public.Can pension insurance system model reform promote the economic growth? Firstly,by using the macro panel data of China from the year of 2002 to 2012,this paper confirmed the existence of the incentive effects of the pension wealth on human capital improvement.Then,by using the opportunity of pension policy reform in2005,this paper found that enhancing the portion of the funded part of the pension system will help strengthen the incentive effects,while the threshold model test results show that this incentive effect differs across the different provinces,which is called the 'double threshold effect'.This paper recommends that while using the human capital incentive effect,we should also try to eliminate the barriers between different provinces to promote a comprehensive and balanced human capital increase,in order to achieve the ultimate goal of economic growth.