汇率波动与货币国际化路径——基于门限面板回归的分析

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Currency Internationalization:A Threshold Panel Regression Analysis

本文采用门限面板回归分析(threshold panel regression)的方法,对世界各主要货币在贬值和非贬值趋势下国际化水平的影响因素进行了计量分析。结果表明,在币值平稳和升值区间内其国际化路径会偏重于国际金融投资中的扩张;而贬值区间,则更依托于国内实体经济的稳健。这对人民币国际化具有重要启示意义。未来人民币如果出现适度贬值,有助于抑制人民币投机泡沫的增长,促进市场化汇率的形成,也要求中国必须加快国内经济的转型升级,保持稳健增长,并在短期中限制人民币在国际金融市场的投机性参与,为人民币国际化打下稳定坚实的基础。

Based on a threshold panel regression,this paper investigates the determinants of the share of international currencies in the global reserve system.We find that the determinants differ substantially when the currency depreciate or not.It is found that the expansion in international finance and investment matters more for currency internationalization when the value of this currency remains stable or appreciates.In contrast,domestic economic factors dominate when currency depreciated.Our study has several implications for RMB internationalization.As RMB keeps appreciation, China should adopt some policies to build up its international financial market,gradually open its capital account,and reduce its export and holdings of foreign exchange assets.At the same time,China should restructure its economy and encourage industrial updating,and hence maintain sustainable growth with economic stability to avoid the reverse of RMB internationalization when depreciation appears.