精准识别:用技术完善城市低保的退出机制——以上海家庭经济状况核对系统为例

Precise Identification:Using Technology to Improve the Exit Mechanism of Urban dibao

使用2003—2014年全国城市低保数据,采用综合控制方法,评估上海市建立家庭经济状况核对系统对低保人口数量的影响:与近似家计调查相比,可信收入凭证的获取使城市低保的瞄准效率提高30.61%。按照这样的识别效果,在全国推广收入核对系统会减少低保人口647.90万~1509.76万人,节约财政资金185.90亿~433.18亿元,占同期财政低保支出的27.57%~64.24%。本文在控制了收入差距、低保标准变动、福利依赖等潜在影响因素之后,认为,政策瞄准的低效率是导致城市贫困'粘滞'的原因。商业银行、证券等金融部门的信息共享,会有效识别隐性收入、提高瞄准效率,是破解粘滞性、完善退出机制的有效手段。

Uses the urban data of Minimum Livelihood Guarantee(dibao) in2003—2014 and the Synthetic Controlling Method(SCM),to evaluate the effect of the Family Economic Condition Checking System(FECCS) on the number of dibao residents in Shanghai.Compared with Proxy Means Tests,getting the verifiable records of potential recipients' earnings(Means Tests) would increase the selection of the beneficiaries for dibao(Targeting) by 30%.By FECCS,the number of dibao in urban China would decrease by 6.48 ~15.10 million,and save 18.59~43.32 billion RMB in the social relief fund(27.57%~64.24%).