以房养老影响因素的实证分析——来自北京市调研的证据

An Empirical Analysis on the Factors of Housing Reverse Mortgage——Evidence from the Social Survey in Beijing

我国已经面临人口老龄化问题,为减缓老龄化问题带来的影响,从2014年7月1日起,为期两年,我国将以北京、上海、广州、武汉四市为试点,推行以房养老政策。试行以房养老政策,一方面可以给收入不高的家庭补充养老所需的现金流,另一方面也可以为政府顺利解决70年的土地产权问题提供基础。因此,从理论上讲,以房养老政策是有利的,有助于提高家庭的社会福利。本文尝试对影响该政策实施的因素设计问卷,在北京市社区进行问卷调研,并对影响因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明,参加以房养老的需求与家庭财务状况相关,亟需资金养老的居民参加以房养老模式的可能性较大,改善目前生活水平的愿望越强烈,老年人越倾向于参加以房养老模式。对未来的预期及以房养老知识的了解程度也会影响需求。对以房养老模式的了解程度越小,老年人越不愿意参加以房养老。预期未来房价下跌的老人倾向于参加以房养老模式。参加以房养老的需求与老人和子女的关系相关,老年人会尽可能将房产留给有需要的子女。与子女同住的老人倾向于选择不参加以房养老模式,女儿的数量增加会促使老年人考虑参加以房养老模式,而子女的生活水平较差会使得老人通过不参加以房养老的方式对子女进行补贴。此外,参加以房养老的需求也与老年人的个人及家庭基本情况相关,有配偶的老年人参加以房养老模式的可能性相对较小。

In order to solve the population aging problem which has already occurred in China,the goverment launched a two-years pilot project of housing reverse mortgage programs in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Wuhan.Housing reverse mortgage programs may bring cash flow to low-income family as pension,however,it could provide solid base for government to deal with the 70-years land property rights issue.As a result,theoretically,housing reverse mortgage programs may have benefits in improving social welfare.This paper designed and surveyed a questionnaire on factors which may influence this policy in communities in Beijing.Empirical results show that the demand to join housing reverse mortgage programs correlates with family financial situation,the possibility for citizens who are in strong need for pension to join the programs is higher than others while expectation for future and understanding of the programs would affect demand.The tendency of joining the programs grows with the willingness to change present living standards and the expectation that property prices would drop in future,and the tendency declines if the elderly has less understanding of the programs.The level of demand also depends on the relationship between the elderly and their children.Under the fact that the elderly would try to leave their house to children who have need,the elderly who live with children tend not to choose housing reverse mortgage programs while the number of daughters may encourage the elderly to join the program.If children's living standard is relatively low,the elderly would not join the program for saving purposes.Besides,the demand to join housing reverse mortgage programs could also be affected by personal and family situations of the elderly,those still with their spouse would have lower possibility of joining the programs.