中国国内生产总值使用核算研究

Research on China’s Expenditure-Based GDP Accounting

国内生产总值(GDP)使用核算是从最终需求角度观察宏观经济运行情况的有效工具,是制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。中国于20世纪80年代末建立了GDP使用核算制度,30年来,为适应中国社会主义市场经济发展的实际情况和宏观经济分析及管理工作的需要,针对中国政府统计改革的不断推进和国民经济核算国际标准的变化,中国GDP使用核算的资料来源和计算方法不断改进,在宏观经济分析和管理工作中发挥越来越重要的作用。但是一些学者认为,中国GDP使用核算所使用的原始数据,例如住户调查中的居民消费支出数据存在低估的问题,投资统计中的固定资产投资数据存在高估的问题,所以对中国GDP使用核算存在质疑。实际上,经过多年的改革和发展,中国GDP使用核算对所使用的原始数据要进行一系列评估和调整。本文对经过多年改革和发展后的中国GDP使用核算的主要资料来源和具体计算方法进行详细阐述,对中国GDP使用核算的进一步改革进行探讨。相信对用户准确了解中国GDP使用核算和正确使用数据会有帮助。

Expenditure-based GDP is not only an effective tool for observing macroeconomic performance from the perspective of final demand,but also an important basis for formulating macroeconomic policies.China established the system of expenditure-based GDP accounting in the late 1980s.In the past 30 years,adapting to the actual situation of China’s socialist market economy development,as well as the needs of macroeconomic analysis and management,aiming at the continuous advancement of Chinese government’s statistical reforms and the changes in the international standards of national accounts,the data sources and calculation methods of China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting continue to improve,the expenditure-based GDP accounting is playing an increasingly important role in macroeconomic analysis and management.However,some researchers consider that the raw data used in the expenditure-based GDP accounting has underestimation or overestimation problem.For instance,they think the household consumption expenditure data in the household survey is underestimated,while the fixed asset investment data in the investment statistics is overestimated,so there is doubt about China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting from researchers.In fact,after years of reform and development,China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting carries out a series of evaluations and adjustments to the raw data used in estimating expenditure-based GDP.This paper introduces the main resources and detailed calculation methods of China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting after the reform and development.Moreover,this paper also discusses the future reforms of China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting.I believe that this paper is helpful for users to accurately understand China’s expenditure-based GDP accounting methods and correctly use this data.