台湾海峡台风年际活动的趋势

TREND OF INTERANNUAL TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN TAIWAN STRAIT

本文根据台湾海峡近85a来的424次实测台风活动资料,采用转移概率、方差分析和自相关分析方法探索、分析台风活动的一般转移趋势与年际活动周期。

Based on 424 field measurements of typhoons in the Taiwan Strait in about 85 years,the trend of in terannual typhoon activities in the Strait is analyzed by using the methods of transfer probability,variance analysis and self correlation analysis.The results indicate that no distinct Persistence in annual number of typhoon,especially in higher frequency of typhoon in a suocasive three years,has been detected;that the intertransfer generally should be carried through the normal typhoon activity year;that in the interannual change process,there is obvious quasi-period of 35 years and 11 years oscillation.