太阳活动周峰值趋势的简易估计方法

A SIMPLE METHOD OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECASTING

本文给出了一种估计太阳活动周峰值趋势的简易方法。

In 1977, when 21 st solar cycle just began, we had forecasted that the maximum smoothed monthly value of Relative sunspot Number of the cycle 21 would be higher than that of the 20 cycle. To obtain this conclusion, in addition to using the normal statistical methods, we've obtained an experience rule, which shows that "If The maximum of relative sunspot number of one cycle had decreased by exceeding 25 per cent as compared with that of the last cycle, it will be raising in the next cycle". Later we also found that "If The maximum of relative sunspot number of one cycle, had increased by exceeding 43 compared with that of the last cycle ,it will be falling in the next cycle." According to these results we've given the forecasts about the tendency of the 22nd and the 23rd solar cycles.