油价上涨冲击比较——推动因素及宏观影响

Comparisons of Shocks of Oil Price Rising——Driving factors and macroeconomic impacts

1997年以来,油价经历了三次幅度较大的上涨,但三轮油价上涨的推动因素及对我国宏观经济的影响存在一定差异。本文结合理论分析与实证分析研究发现:三轮油价上涨都与投机因素具有较大关联性,2016年以来的油价上涨主要还受供给因素推动。基于TVP-VAR模型的实证分析显示,与上两轮油价上涨冲击相比,本轮油价上涨并未对我国工业增速带来明显负向冲击,对通胀影响也相对有限。

Since 1997, the oil price has experienced three rounds large increases. However, there are some differences in the driving factors and the impact on China’s macro economy of the three rounds oil price increases. Combined theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper finds the following conclusions: the three rounds of oil price increases are all related to speculative factors. In addition, this round of oil price increase since 2016 was also driven by supply factors. Based on TVP-VAR model, this paper finds that compared with the impact of the previous two rounds of oil price increases, this round of oil price increase did not bring a significant negative impact on China’s industrial growth rate, and its impact on inflation is also relatively limited.