影子银行之同业非标对金融稳定的影响研究Ⅱ

Research on the Influence of Financial Stability about Nonstandard Assets of Interbank Business of Shadow Banking Ⅱ

文章是作者2017年研究成果的续作,延续了前作的布局,针对同业非标的监管效果(发展情况)和监管套利以及同业非标对金融稳定的影响三方面的问题进行研究。监管效果方面,文章运用图表和面板分析法以同业非标资产、同业负债(含同业存单)为突破口评估了同业非标的监管效果。监管套利方面,文章运用会计还原法、流程图分析法、数据比较法分别从利益驱动、运作模式和收益率成本率三个角度验证套利事实。对金融稳定的影响方面,文章通过脉冲响应分析、格兰杰因果分析实证分析了同业非标的影响。研究表明:监管虽然控制了股权及其他投资的增速,但是影子银行还是通过小银行和同业存单实现了发展,监管套利模式变得更加复杂,对金融稳定的影响越来越大。

As a sequel to the author’s research results in 2017, the paper continues the layout of the previous work and studies the regulatory effectiveness(development) and regulatory arbitrage of interbank non-standard and the impact of interbank non-standard on financial stability. In terms of regulatory effects, taking non-standard assets and interbank liabilities(including interbank negotiable certificates of deposit) as sally ports, the paper uses charts and the panel analysis method to assess regulatory effects of interbank non-standard. Regarding regulatory arbitrage, the paper employs the accounting reduction method, the flow chart analysis approach and the data comparison method to verify the arbitrage facts from the perspectives of the interest-driven, operational mode as well as return rate and cost rate. As regards the impacts on financial stability, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of interbank non-standard through the impulse response analysis and Granger causal analysis. Studies show that although regulation controls the growth rate of equity and other investments, shadow banking has achieved development through small banks and interbank negotiable certificates of deposit, and the regulatory arbitrage model has become more complicated and has an increasingly greater impact on financial stability.