建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型

Probability model for hazard analysis of post-earthquake fire occurrence and spread among buildings

本文探讨了建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出分析的基本思路,提出了与建筑结构地震破坏状态相关的次生火灾发生和蔓延的危险性概率模型。通过对相关参数的初步量化分析,结合城市防灾工作中广泛使用的地理信息系统,给出了用于城市建筑物震后可能发生火灾或使火灾蔓延的危险性分析和次生火灾高危险区域的确定方法。

In this paper the authors discuss the uncertainty of the secondary fire disaster occurrence of structure buildings following an earthquake, provide the idea of analysis, put forward the hazard probability model of the secondary fire occurrence and spread, which is correlated with the damage state of structure buildings. Then, on the basis of preliminary quantitative analysis of the relevant parameters and by using the geographical information system (GIS) that has been extensively used in disaster prevention of cities, the authors present some methods for determining secondary fire occurrence and spread hazard analysis and define the high hazard area of the secondary fire in cities.