农业洪涝灾害风险分析与评估——以湘南农业洪涝易损性为例

Risk Analysis and Assessment of Agriculture for Flood Disaster——A Case Study of Agricultural Fragility to Waterlogging in South of Hunan Province

农业洪涝灾害风险分析涉及到三个方面 ,即洪水危险性分析、农业洪涝易损性分析 ,农业灾情损失评估。而农业洪涝易损性的研究对防灾抗灾具有特别重要的意义。湘南区是湖南省重要的农业生产基地之一 ,也是洪涝灾害较重地区之一。其灾害损失与农业洪涝易损性密切相关。文中详细地分析了水土流失与水利设施、人口密度与人均收入、汛期降水和暴雨、植被和土壤等因素对农业洪涝易损性形成的作用。且依据长时间序列的气象资料和经济统计数据 ,运用数学模型和有关优化分析方法及 GIS技术 ,对湘南农业洪涝易损性进行定量评估 ,在此基础上 。

There are flood risk and agricultural fragility to waterlogging and agricultural loss in agricultural risk analysis for flood disaster.It is important to study agricultural fragility for preventing and repelling flood disaster.The South to Hunan Province,an important agricultural production base in Hunan Province,is an area suffered serious flood disaster.Its agricultural loss is inter fix agricultural fragility to waterlogging.In this article,fragility of agricultural flood disaster in county is analyzed by the factors of the loss of natural environment and the lever of irrigation works,density of population and income for every peasantry,precipitation and rainstorm,forest wreathe and soil and so on.According to the historical meteorological data and economic statistical data,fragility of agricultural flood disaster in county is assessed with mathematics model,optimized method and GIS technology.Its countermeasure os put forwraded to reduce agricultural fragility for waterlogging.