山东酷热天气统计特征分析

Analysis of Statistical Features of Extremely Hot Days in Shandong Province

利用统计方法对山东 1 951～ 2 0 0 2年的酷热天气进行了分析 ,发现山东的酷热天气主要出现在鲁西、鲁北和鲁南 ;酷热天气在 5～ 8月均可出现 ,主要集中在 6～ 7月 ;有明显的年际变化 ,2 0世纪 50～ 70年代前期酷热天气频繁发生 ,且强度较强。小波分析表明主要存在 4年和 1 0年左右的周期。西风带暖脊是造成山东酷热天气的主要天气形势 ,其次是副热带高压 ;酷热日与前期炎热日关系密切 ;850hPa温度场上郑州附近的 2 4℃暖中心有很好的指示意义。

The extremely hot days during last 52 years(1951-2002) are investigated by means of statistical and wavelet analysis. The results show that extremely hot days mainly occur in the western, northern and southern Shandong province from May to August, mainly in June and July. They emerged frequently between 1950′s and the early 1970′s.In addition, the result of wavelet analysis indicates that the main period is about 4- and 10-years. The warm ridge in westerlies should be basically blamed for the most extremely hot days, and the subtropical high might play the second important role. Extremely hot day generally follows the previous hot days. And the warm center of 24℃ around Zhengzhou over 850hPa is a remarkable index for prediction of extremely hot days.