陇东黄土高原春末夏初旱的气候特征及预测模型

Climatic Characteristics of Drought and Its Forecast Model in Late Spring and Early Summer in the Eastern Gansu Province

应用自然正交函数分解 (EOF)方法 ,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH 的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律 ;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响 ;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型 ,业务使用效果良好。

The temporal-spatial distribution of drought index D H in late spring and early summer in the eastern Gansu Province is analyzed by EOF. The effect of drought on output of winter wheat and corn is also analyzed. Finally, a forecast model of drought index is developed with stepwise regression and it has better forecast results.