黑龙江省作物生长动态模式预测产量的方法及应用

Method and Applcation of the Crop Growth Dynamic Model to Forecast Yields in the Hellongjiang Province

在分析作物干物质累积曲线的基础上,分析温度、降水等气候因子与作物干物质累积量的关系,而干物质累积量又与气候产量有着直接的关系。因此,在干物质累积模型的基础上,建立作物生长动态模式,该模式主要用于四大主栽作物玉米、大豆、水稻及小麦的产量预测。利用模式预测了2001～2002年黑龙江省四大作物的单产,其精确度在94%左右。

By investigating the growth curve of crop dry matter,This paper analyzes the relationship between climatic f actors such as temperature prelipitation,and the accumulated quantity of crop dry matter which is related to climatic yield directly.Therefore,According to the model of the accumulated dry matter,the Crop Growth Dynamic Model(CGDM)is founded,which is used to predict grain yields for the f our main crops which are maize,soybean,rice and wheat.The CGDM was appli ed to years2001and 2002.For what regards yield s per hectare the rate of accuracy of f orecasting is of the order of 94%.