电信市场变迁:3个经典博弈模型的应用分析

Application analysis for three classical game models

针对中国电信市场经历的垄断、双寡头垄断和寡头垄断竞争3个阶段演变历程,应用监督博弈、市场进入阻挠博弈、囚徒困境博弈3个经典博弈模型描述了电信市场3个阶段的特征,分析了3个阶段的博弈目标和政府、在位者、进入者等各利益主体在博弈中的行为选择,揭示了电信市场从不构成纳什均衡博弈向纳什均衡博弈转变的制度变迁趋势及博弈结果的主要成因.电信市场具有帕累托改进特征的制度变迁为现阶段我国其他自然垄断产业深化改革、提高市场效率提供了有益启示.

The characteristics of the three stages of monopoly,duopoly, oligopoly competition of Chinese telecommunication market are described using the three classical game models of monitoring game, entry deterrence game, prisoners' dilemma, and the game aims of these three stages and the selection of every player including government, monopolist, entrant are analysed. The trend of institutional changes on Chinese telecommunication market from non constituting Nash equilibrium to Nash equilibrium and main factors having effect on game results are pointed out to provide useful inspiration for deepening reform and improve the marketplace effectiveness of other natural monopoly industies in China.