紫外线辐射强度预报模型研究

Research on the Forecast Model of Radiation Intensity of Ultraviolet Ray

以陈万隆的到达地面的紫外辐射的参数化方案、Frederick模式中的高度修正方程和NWS的云量修正方程为基础,建立了一个到达地面紫外总辐射的预测模型,进行紫外线辐射强度预报。结果表明:模型能很好地反映出晴天紫外线辐射强度的变化趋势及其规律,少云、多云和阴天由于天空状况复杂,预报误差相对较大,但基本上能反映出紫外线辐射强度的变化情况。模型考虑因子较全面,可以用于城市紫外线辐射强度预报。

A model for predicting the global ultraviolet radiation arriving at the ground surface is developed in this paper on the basis of the parameterization scheme by Chen Wanlong,the heightamending equation of Frederick model and NWS'cloudnessamending equation,and predictions of ultraviolet radiation intensity are performed.Results show that under a clear sky the model can satisfactorily reflect the variational trend of ultraviolet radiation fairily well,and under a complicated sky circumstance such as a part cloudy,cloudy,or over cast sky,the forecast errors are relatively larger,however it can basically reflect the variational trend and law of ultraviolet radiation intensity.The model allows for various influencing factors,and may be applied to the prediction of ultraviolet radition intensity in cities.