摘要
以年为周期、按时间序列把径流连续过程离散化为月或旬,若相邻月(旬)存在依赖关系则径流过程符合马尔科夫链。在求出条件概率后,即可求出相邻时段的转移概率矩阵,最后求得相应的条件概率流量。全部计算用FORTRAN语言编写程序,在VAX—8350机上实现。
Taking one year as apperiod and compling the time series, disperses and divides the continous runoff process into processes in a series of months or ten-days. The runoff process will be in accord with Markov Chain , if addependent relationship exists among the adjacent months or ten- days. When the conditional probability is gotten, transformation probability matrix of the adjacent time zones could be obtained and then the relative flows could be evaluted. The calculation was programmed by FORTRAN language and ran on computer.
基金
山东省1989~1991年的科研课题
关键词
水库
径流
条件概率
马氏过程
Reservoir
Runoff
Markov process
Conditional probability
Transition Probability
