最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

Choice and Implementation of the Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in China

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 。

In this paper, we first formulate and estimate a hybrid model based on the actual data of China, and then use this model as a framework for studying monetaty policy rules. By means of stochastic simulations, we calculate and compare the welfare loss under the completely commitment optimal rule, optimal Taylor rule and discretion. In the meantime, we also calculate the variation of inflation rate equivalent to the welfare loss. The results indicate that the optimal Taylor rule is a good approximator to the completely commitment optimal rule, which provides a guide to further improvement about the decision and implementation of monetary policy in China. Furthermore, we analyze the current issues existing in the decision and implementation of monatary policy in China, inter alia, the issues about money-growth-targeting. Finally, we give some suggestions for the improvement of monetary policy in China.