摘要
运用模糊线性回归分析方法,建立编组站运营指标的模糊预测模型。利用该模型,对向塘西编组站中时进行了预测。在对中时影响因素分析的基础上,选取办理车数、有调中转车数、无调中转车数、折角车流量、货物列车到发列数和到发均衡程度等6个影响因素,结合车站近几年相关历史数据,确定了中时与6个影响因素之间的模糊函数关系。依据此函数关系对未来时期的中时进行了预测,预测结果表明所提出的运营指标预测方法有较好的适用性。
This paper makes use of the method of analysis of fuzzy linear regression to build the fuzzy prediction model of operating indices. Using the prediction model, it predicts wagon's transfer time of the Xiangtangxi Marshalling Station. Based on analysis of influencing ingredients for wagon's transfer time, this paper selects six ingredients from them which are handled wagons, wagons in transit with sorting, wagons in transit without sorting, angular wagon flows, arriving and departing goods trains and the balanced level of train arrival and departure. According to the historical data of recent years, fuzzy runction between wagon's transfer time and influencing ingredients for it is determined to forecast future wagon's transfer time. It shows that the presented method for prediction has practical application.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第5期8-13,共6页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2002X017 B)
关键词
运营指标
对称三角模糊数
模糊线性回归
预测方法
operating indices
symmetric triangular fuzzy numbers
fuzzy linear regression
method for prediction
