关于“通缩出口”论的检验:中、日、美三国比较

An Examination of the Theory of "Export by Deflated - Price - Pass - through": A Comparison between China, Japan and America

本文的目的是根据价格传递效应的理论,通过考察中、日、美三国间进出口价格的相互影响来检验是否存在中国“通缩出口”的现象。为了使检验结果更具有统计意义上的稳健性(robustness),论文在两个方面作出了创新的努力:首先,数据处理方法的选择。不再是只依赖对数据要求苛刻的古典最小二乘法来做参数估计,以免造成“虚假回归”的问题。注意到数据本身的序列相关、异方差、结构变化和非线性等特征,我们还分别采用了工具变量(IV)、虚拟变量(DM)、一般矩(GMM)、向量自回归(VAR)和误差修正(ECM)等比较科学的方法来检验中国“通缩出口”论假说的真伪性。其次,代理变量界定及其数据的设计。由于数据本身的不稳定性、数据不全或某些重要的概念缺乏对应的数据,所以,论文运用了ARI-MA的动态预测模型来完善数据,以减少其他数据加工的方法所带来的严重性的估计偏差问题。鉴于上述比较严密的实证方法,我们得到两个重要的政策含义:首先,主张中国“通缩”输出论是基于传统的“支出转移效应”的宏观分析视角,但忽略了进出口企业的定价能力等微观要素,所以,这种主张不符合数据反映的现实情况。其次,一国的货币政策可以制约汇率和外国价格对本国价格的传递效应,这一特点是现有的价格传递效应理论,即支出转移效应和商品价格?

The aim of this paper is to examine - based on the theory of foreign prices pass - through (hereafter called PPT) and by survey of the interaction of export prices in China, Japan and America -whether there exists in China the phenomenon of 'export by deflated - price - pass - through ' . To make the result of examination have statistical robustness, we in this paper have made efforts with creative power in two respects. First, we have chosen to use the method of data processing, no longer only relying - in the process of estimating parameters - on the classical method of least squares which demands harsh terms of data, in order to avoid 'fictitious regression analysis'. In order to highlight the characteristics of data themselves such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, structural change, non - linear, we have such scientific methods as IV, DM, GMM, VAR and ECM to examine the truth or the falsity of the hypothesis of 'export by deflated - price - pass - through' in China. Second, we have used substitute variables and design thereof. Due to the unsteadiness and incompleteness of data themselves, and because some important concepts lack corresponding data, this article has used Arima' s forecast model to make data complete, in order to reduce serious estimate deviation brought about by other methods in data processing. In view of the above- mentioned rigorous method used, we have arrived at two important conclusions in policy. Firstly, we think that the theory of ' export by deflated - price - pass - through' in China can be employed as the macro angle of view based on the traditional 'effect of expending transfer (EET)', but this theory ignores such micro factors as the ability of import and export enterprises to fix prices, thus not according with the facts reflected by data. Secondly, the characteristic that the monetary policy of a country can constrain exchange rates and the effect of PPT, is the foundation of the present ' effect of prices- pass- through', that is, the basis of a new system that EET and the theory of pricing commodities do not touch, and the effect of this characteristic has been demonstrated, especially in USA.