山东木材供需趋势分析与预测

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SUPPLY-DEMAND TREND OF TIMBER IN SHANDONG

本文对山东木材供求的历史、现状和发展趋势进行了系统地分析和科学预测,并重点研究了木材供求的总量矛盾和产品结构性矛盾。研究结果表明,山东到2000年木材的需求量将由“七五”期间的年600万m^3增加到1055.85万m^3,届时省产的木材只能满足需求量的48%。这种状况表明,山东木材需求大于供给是一个长期发展趋势,在本世纪末不可能靠省内自产木材实现基本自给,只能在采取有效措施后,逐步提高木材自给率、利用率和经济效益。

Systimatical analysis and scientifical prediction of Shandong' timber supply-demand based on historic-current situation and developing trend showed that the timber demand in Shandong would increase from 6 million m^3/p.a. in 1986-1990 to 10.5585 million m^3/p.a. by the year of 2000, 48% in deficiency. It will be impossible to realize self-supply by means of self-production for a long time, therefore, effective measures must be taken to increase gradually the self-supply rate, utilization rate and economic benefit.