股票投资的粘性预期及其模型分析

Analysis on the Sticky Expectation and Its Model in the Stock Investment

对股票市场投资者预测模式的研究是股市基础研究的一项重要工作。本文对股票投资者粘性预期的模型分析表明,在信息不完全的情况下,投资者的预期具有粘性和突变性双重特征,体现出多逻辑不确定性的特点。同时,基本面信息和技术面信息的增多都有助于粘性预期向理性预期接近,但两类信息的作用不完全一致,具有某种非线性的代偿关系。

The study on the expectation mode of stock investors is very important for the study of stock markets. The results of the analysis on the sticky expectation of investors indicates that the expecta-tion of investors have dual characteristic such as stickiness and jump which is related to the multi-logic uncertainty when the information is not completed. Meanwhile, the increase of the amount of fundamental information and technical information both help the approach of sticky expectation to rational expectation, but the function of these two kinds of information are not completely identical whereas there is some non-linear trade-off relationship between them.