摘要
对1995～2001年中国干线公路不同区域路段上交通量的变化状况作了系统分析,分别选取不同省份为点、同一干线上不同路段为线、划分的不同区域为面,从三方面揭示了交通量相关影响因素变化带来的交通量的变化特性。给出了反映交通量与其影响因素之间的定量关系的回归模型,并对回归结果作了进一步分析,求出了中国东部、中部和西部地区的弹性系数,从而为交通需求预测中相关模型的参数确定提供参照依据,同时对未来国家干线交通发展状况作出预测。
Based on the traffic volume of national highway network from 1995 to 2001,this paper selected different province as point,different section of highway as line, different area as side to analyze the changing characteristics of influential factor on traffic volume,gived the economic regression equation,provided the economic elasticity of traffic volume from the economic regression equation. The regression equation provides evidence of correlation model of traffic prediction and also can be believed that it can effectively to predict the future traffic volume of the network.
出处
《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第5期74-78,共5页
Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
交通工程
干线公路网
交通量
经济增长
回归分析
交通预测
traffic engineering
main artery network
traffic volume
economic growth
regression analysis
traffic prediction
