中强地震前地震拟合优度的异常特征及在地震预报中的应用

Anomalous Feature of Seismic Goodness of Fit before Mid-strong Earthquake and Its Application to the Earthquake Prediction

引用地震拟合优度r值 ,对华北地区 18次中强地震前地震拟合优度r值与地震活动的关系进行了分析和研究 ,总结出了中强地震前地震拟合优度r值的异常特征 ,并把该方法应用到了河南及其邻区的中等地震预报中 ,制定了预报规则 ,进行了预测内符检验和预报评分。结果表明 ,该方法是一种有效的中期地震预报方法 ,尤其对弱震区中等地震的预报具有推广应用价值。

The value r of seismic goodness of fit is used in this paper. The relation between seismic goodness of fit and seismic activity before 18 mid-strong earthquakes in North China has been analyzed and studied. The anomalous features of seismic goodness of fit before mid-strong earthquakes are also summarized. This method is applied in the prediction for mid-strong earthquakes in Henan Province and its neighboring areas. A regulation for prediction was also established and had a test with inner coincidence and prediction scoring. The result shows that this method is effective in medium-term earthquake prediction and medium-sized earthquake prediction, especially to less active seismic area, which is worth popularizing and applying.