摘要
根据北京地区 2 0 0 3年 4月 2 1日～ 5月 2 0日逐日SARS发病人数序列 ,用正交多项式法拟合发病人数的趋势变化 ,将波动量 (实际发病人数与趋势量之差 )与前期气象因子进行相关分析 ,结果表明 ,该波动量与 9～ 1 0天前的最高气温、气温日较差、相对湿度等因子显著相关 ,在此基础上 。
Based on the series of daily SARS incident numbers from April 21 to May 20,2003,in Beijing area, the vacillating measurements affected by meteorological condition are separated from total tendency, with orthogonal polynomial methods. The results of correlation analysis show that they are significantly related with daily maximum temperature, daily range and relative humidity ahead of 8 to 9 days. On this basis, the regression estimation model can perfectly fit historic series of daily incidence fluctuation of this disease.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第10期42-45,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
