陇中半干旱区生态环境恢复重建与农牧业发展仿真研究

Simulation of Resuming and Rebuilding Weak Eco-environment and Developing Agriculture and Husbandry in Longzhong Semi-Arid Region

应用系统动力学理论建立了陇中农牧交错带生态环境恢复重建的SD模型,对该区的三种典型治理模式—综合治理型、农牧协调发展型和传统经营型,用该模型仿真研究了2000～2080年的生态系统发展趋势。结果表明:农牧协调发展模式可使农牧业协调持续发展,土壤侵蚀量减少76 1%,生态环境稳步趋向良性循环,它是该区生态环境治理与农牧业持续发展的最佳模式。

Based on the system dynamic theory, a SD model of resuming and rebuilding of the weak ecological environment in the Longzhong interlock zone of agriculture and animal husbandry has been built With this model, the ecological developping trends of the zone in nearly 80 years from 2000 to 2080 has been simulated under three typical management patterns: (1) the type of comprehensive management; (2) the type of steady development in agriculture and animal husbandry, and (3) the type of traditional management As the results shows, the type of steady development can best balance the development of agriculture and animal husbandry, and reduce of soil erosion by 67 9 percent, and promote the ecological environment in this region into to a benefit circle So, that is the best pattern for improving the ecological environment in this region 