摘要
市盈率是被广泛用来测量股节泡沫风险的一个重要指标。本文根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论,导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值,据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势,说明我国股票市场上的投资者日趋成熟,投资行为日趋理性。
The P/E ratio is a very important index which is wildly used to measure the risk of stockmarket bubbles. This paper tried to explore a method to calculate the rational P/E which is used as a norm to measure the risk of stock-market bubbles on the basis of the financial theory. The rational P/E is not a constant. Since 1993, the bubbles in Shanghai stock-market have decreased. The investors in the stock-market have becoming more reasonable.
出处
《广东经济管理学院学报》
2003年第3期52-57,共6页
Journal of Guangdong Institute of Business Administration
