深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析

Analysis on land use dynamics of Shenzhen

在分析深圳市土地利用变化与驱动力的基础上 ,将城镇用地细化为工业用地、居住用地和第三产业用地 ,并将它们与耕地和工业投资、人口增长、收入水平、水资源状况等主要驱动力纳入统一的总体结构中 ,采用系统动力学的方法 ,定量地描述它们的动态关系。系统动力学模型的基本模拟结果显示 ,城镇用地的长期变化趋势是一种“S”型的增长规律 ,从1980年至2030年是城镇用地变化的快速增长阶段。在城镇用地的变化过程中 ,工业用地、居住用地和第三产业用地在总的城镇用地中所占的比例在经过一个较长时期的波动后 ,大约从2020年开始基本保持稳定的状态。耕地的变化趋势是持续下降 。

Based on analysis on land use change and driving forces in Shenzhen,this paper divided urban land into industrial land,residential land and service land,and put them in the same framework with arable land and major driving forces,namely industrial investment,population growth,income level and water availability.And then the method of system dynamics was used to quantitatively describe their dynamic relationships.The basic result of system dynamics simulation shows that the long term trend of urban land change is a“S shaped' curve,and the fastest period is between 1980 and 2030.After a relatively long time fluctuation,the proportions of industrial land,residential land and service land in urban land use will become stable from 2020.Arable land has been decreasing continuously and will finally disappear.