摘要
本文对陕西省有林地和灌木林地历史数据,运用图解与解析相结合的方法,算出了参数 a、b、k,从而建立了量化预测模型,经检验,平均精度达95%,模型计算值与最后三次的调查值相比,平均精度达96%以上,并对未来进行了预测,其预测结果与森林法要求值、生态平衡需要值和经济建设需求值比较,都很接近,所以是合理的,可信的。
By using the historic data of forested and shrubs areas in Shaanxi,the parameters a,b,k in verhulst model were calculated through the combination of sketching and statistic approachs.The model being test hold a average precision of 95%.The Predicted values by the model comparsing with the investigated ones reaches a average precision of 96% up.The prediction results are approximately equal to the demanded value by ecologica balance,the required value by Forestry law and the needed value by economic construction,so that,which is reasonable and reliable.
出处
《陕西林业科技》
北大核心
1992年第3期45-49,共5页
Shaanxi Forest Science and Technology
关键词
饱合值
回验精度
预测值
需求值
Saturation value
Test precision
Prediction value
and demand value
