气候变化对能源需求的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand

通过计算我国北方地区（冬季采暖区）采暖起止日期、采暖度日、采暖长度及其变率等要素，分析这些要素的变化特点；建立冬季平均气温与采暖度日变率之间的相关方程，探讨当温度变化不同幅度情况下对采暖需求的影响；分析气候的异常变化对整个采暖区及采暖区各地采暖需求变化的影响。建立温度变化对采暖耗能影响的关系模式；进行以采暖长度变率替代采暖耗能变化的尝试性研究。

In the paper, we calculate some elements about winter heating and analyses their variety characteristics in north of China, for example, start and end date of heating period, heating degree day, heating length and its variability. build the correlation equations between mean temperature in winter and variability of heating degree day, study the impact of different temperature changes on demanding for heating. analyses that the climatic abnormality change impact on demanding for heating in whole heating area and some places in the area. build relative model about temperature change impacting on heating energy consumption, We also have a attempt to use variability of heating length in place of energy consumption in the model.