华中电网四省日用电量与气温关系的评估

Relationship between Daily Energy Consumption and Temperature in Central China

根据华中电网４省１９９１、１９９３、１９９５年逐月的日用电量与日平均、最高、最低气温的线性相关分析发现：①日用电量与日平均气温在夏半年（５～９月）８５％月份呈显著正相关，冬半年（１０～４月）２／３月份相关不显著，且正、负相关月数各半；②夏半年各月日用电量的１℃效应量逐年增加，以又热又干的月份最大，河南在６月，南３省在７或８月；③夏半年日用电量与日平均气温的时间变化曲线较一致，有时前者峰或谷比后者峰或谷迟１～２天，二者相关系数０、８９（湖北）。最后建立了夏半年各月日用电量－气温评估模型。

The linear correlation analysis are adopted on the daily energy consumptionand average air temperature, the maximum and the minimum air temperature of central China electric network in 1991, 1993 and 1995,the following are the foundings: 1) Thecorrelation of daily energy consumption and dally average air temperature is remarkably positive in 85% months in the summer half year (from May to September), but about two--thirds months in the winter half year (from October to April), the correlation is not remarkable; 2) by 1℃ effect of daily energy consumption of everymonth in summer half year increased year by year, and the largest appeared in the month which is hot and dry It appeared in June in Henan, and in July or August in other three provinces; 3)In summer half year, timely varying curves of daily energy consumption and daily average air temperature are unanimous, and the peaks or gorges of the former is about one or two days later than that of the latter. The correlation coefficient is 0.89 (Hubei). Finally the evaluation models for monthly daily energy consumption--air temperature correlation of summer half year are built.