热带气旋灾情的预测及评估

The Evaluation of Disastrous Losses Caused by Tropical Cyclones

针对１９９０～１９９６年登陆广东省的２１个热带气旋所造成的灾情，采用模糊数学原理和方法，选取不同的因子组合，计算出登陆热带气旋的综合灾情指数，并在此基础上客观地划分５个灾情等级，用来表示受灾的程度。结果表明，灾前预测及灾害评估模型都具有较高的拟合率，能较好地评价和预测登陆热带气旋可能造成的经济损失程度。

In this paper, the Fuzzy composite evaluation method was applied to evaluate the damage caused by tropical cyclones making landfall in Guangdong during the period of 1990-- 1996. The index of the disaster of every tropical cyclone have been obtained, and have been divided into five parts. The result shows that this method can relatively evaluate the losses caused by tropical cyclones with different density.