住院构成前5位病种医疗费用时间序列分析与预测

Time series analytical method and forecast of medical fees of the top 5 diseases in rank order of inpatients proportions

该文以某三级甲等医院１９９３年第１季度～１９９９年第３季度住院前１０位病种中相重叠的５种病种的出院病例为样本，采用时间序列分析方法，对病种平均住院医疗费用进行分析与预测。结果表明，病种平均住院医疗费用从１９９３年第１季度～１９９５年第４季度沿着较快速上升的趋势波动，接着便衰减并逐渐缓下降。预测１９９９年第３季度～２０００年第４季度病种平均住院医疗费用将继续缓慢下降。医疗费控制与保险支付额预算应尽可能准确地预测病种医疗费用的变化，使医疗费用的控制更合理，使医疗保险支付额预算更准确，更好地贯彻“以收定支。收支平衡”的原则。

This paper selected the 5 diseases overlapped in the top 10 diseases in rank order of inpatients proportions in a grade A tertiary hospital from the first quarter in 1993 to the third quarter in 1999 as sample, and used time series analytical method to study and forecast the average medical fees of hospitalized diseases. Results indicated that average medical fees of inpatients fluctuated along the trend risen rapidly from the first quarter in 1993 to the forth quarter in 1995, and then fell slowly at the second quarter in 1999. Forecast showed that average medical fees of diseases would continue to be falling slowly from the third quarter in 1999 to the forth quarter in 2000. The change of medical fees of diseases are forecasted as accurate as possible in order to make the control of payment norm of medical insurance more exact.