区域城市化水平地域差异及影响因素的灰色关联分析——以湖北省为例

Grey Correlative Analysis of the Influence factors and Regional Disparities of the Level of Urbanizationin Different Regions——a case study of Hubei Province

将湖北省近16年的城市化发展分为两个时段,从人口、社会经济、地理环境等角度选取具有代表性指标,构建评价指标体系并利用主成分分析方法提取城市化水平分异的主因子。在此基础上,利用灰色关联分析方法分析了两个时段湖北省区域城市化水平差异的主要影响因素,其分析结果表明:湖北省区域城市化水平总体上和该区的社会经济发展水平密切相关,但不同时段影响湖北省区域城市化水平分异的主要因素是不同的。在1994年以前的10年内,社会投资能力、市场发育状况及工业化水平是湖北省城市化水平地区分异的最为重要的因素;在1995年后,乡镇工业的发展水平对各区城市化水平差异的影响表现得更为明显。

By dividing the development process of Hubei's industrialization from 1986 to 2000 into two periods, a evaluation index system has been built up including population, social economy and geographical environment. At the same time, key factors has been extracted by factor analysis method of FAM. Based on this, some affecting factors have been analyzed through GCA (Grey correlative analysis). Result shows that the level of urbanization was totally related to the development level of social economies. However, the major factors were different during the two periods. Between 1985 and 1994, social investment, market and industrialization were the main factors while the township - industry had significantly effected the level of Hubei' urbanization after 1995.